tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19319745197132918202024-03-13T09:38:08.381+08:00周全浩/張公道/高步昇 -------- 股市、能源及時事縱橫談首創全港均值回歸測市系統,觀點獨特;中港能源研究領導性分析;針貶時事,鞭辟入裡周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comBlogger233125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-55630896986642092322022-12-21T19:27:00.002+08:002022-12-22T15:12:53.946+08:00<p><span style="font-size: large;">特別文章分享:跌市近底 分注吸入</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">原刊於2022年10月24日,周全浩/張公道網上投資通訊,www.stocks-energy.com<br /></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">上週的港股,恒指的高點為週三的16,923點,低點為週四的16,010點,(此處以日中高低點計算),週五收於16,211點,比前週跌376點。若然以收市指數計算,高點為週二的16,914,低點為週五的16,211點,同樣不濟。<br /><br />眾多指標反映,由去年2月頂位31,085點開始的超級大跌市,已經跌近底點,後者即使今個月不出現,下月亦必出現。除非世界爆出熱戰,真正兵戌相見,飛彈亂飛,(衹有三流的分析員才會說核武橫飛,自二戰後無世界大戰,就是因為核武的出現,核戰無贏家,衹會一鑊熟),否則跌市底點一定於11月底前出現,現時已屆10月底,可見底點在望。<br /><br />個人早前明確指出,恒指16,250的水平會有強力支持,縱然跌穿,頂多跌落15,000點,便會見底。區區現仍持有此看法,無需修訂。<br /><br />大市已出現多種跌市近底的訊號,包括全世界看淡,無人看好;成交量銳減,跌至2020年以來的最低紀錄;恒指的升跌韻律,無論是年綫、月綫、週綫及日綫,皆出現難得一見的全面弱勢。<br /><br />以週綫升跌韻律看,自6月28日的22,449點下跌以來,最近16週的表現為「跌跌升跌升跌跌升跌跌跌跌跌升跌跌」,16週內竟然未試過連升兩週,十分罕見;最近八週內跌七週,亦屬弱勢畢呈,非常稀奇。<br /><br />日綫圖的升跌韻律屬同一機杼,一面倒地下跌,詳細一數便清楚。証諸港股自1970年後的走勢模式,衹有在超級大跌市末段,才會出現此種末世風情。<br /><br />此外,「均值回歸」理論的中心指標,移動平均綫的表現也呈極端弱勢。上週五之收市指數16,211,跌穿360個月的移平綫17,887,即過去三十年的平均水平。<br /><br />目前恒指跌穿10天、20天、50天、100天及250天綫,各綫全部顛倒排列,恒指在最下方,拉著各綫向下滑落,形成跌市的標準模式。目前的恒指16,211,在下方拋離250天綫達25%,也是一個偏弱的訊號。<br /><br />坊間的股市專家無一人提議股民趁大跌市吸入,即使有提議,都是叫人買高息股如公用及房託類,不切實際。區區留意到,在牛市第三期,股市炒到熱火朝天之時,專家們個個眉飛色舞,天天推介股票,極少聲音警剔股民,慎防樂極生悲。到大跌市近底之時,却無人提出趁低吸入。<br /><br />本欄坐言起行,恒指已見16,250點,股民可開始買貨,投入第一注資金。模擬投資組合買入騰訊(700),以$230吸入,另外以$16.30吸入盈富基金(2800),盈富今週將宣佈末期息,宣佈之後很快除息,待除息之後,相信於$16.30可在10月份內買到。<br /><br />選取騰訊是因為它是中國科技股的龍頭公司,市值大,而超級大戶常用它來左右恒指的升跌。盈富隨恒指上落,由恒生銀行接手管理後,管理費減低,並且有望較照顧本港投資者的利益。下週一的核心文章將交待能否買到該兩股。<br /></span></div>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-90027948843677977602022-12-21T19:21:00.003+08:002022-12-21T19:21:38.014+08:00<p>
</p><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文章分享:港股的跌市已於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點見底</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">原刊於</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">《信報月刊</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">》</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,2022年12月號 ,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「張公道投資智慧」專欄</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">筆者上期於月刊的文章指出,恒指</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點近跌市底。拙作於每月中裁稿,一個月後回顧,喜見準確得出奇。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">恒指於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">31</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點(日中低點為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,597</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">),然後急速彈升。至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日彈升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">18,343</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點收市,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">17</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的一個月,港股已經找到大跌市的底點,並且開始回升。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年月綫圖的資料,充份反映港股的長期走勢,測市的效用超卓,詳析如下:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">長期走勢圖反映,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點會有強力支持,即使跌穿,頂多再跌千餘點,跌至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點的邊緣便有強橫阻力。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果不幸跌穿,處於其下的日子十分短暫,詳細分析顯示,衹佔過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的時日,意指跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點後,不旋踵便會升回其上,因為市況太殘,估值非常吸引,遲早必有大資金趁低吸入,將恒指扯回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點之上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">果然恒指於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">24</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的八個交易日內完成探底的旅程。於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">31</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點之底點,期間跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">八天,跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點衹得兩天,完全符合月綫圖的啟示。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大市已經見底而回升的跡象俯拾即是。第一,以歷年大跌市運行的時間計算,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2021</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">31,085</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點開始的大熊市,無論如何最遲會於今個月出現。實際情形是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月底之</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">已見底,無需重演</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1973</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1974</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年那一次最長跌市的劇本。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以跌幅計算,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">31,085</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,大跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">52.8%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,完全符合大跌市的要求。從</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2022</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的年波幅計算,波幅達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">41.2%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,超額完成要求,今年乃港股波動得最利害的一年。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第二,以大市成交量的變動分析。大市的日均成交量由今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">7</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,異常疏落,處於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">922</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億餘至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1,083</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億餘元之間,遠低於最近兩年的平均水平。當時恒指於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">21,853</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點間浮動,大市在最低水平築底。持有蟹貨者不願沽,欲買貨者覺得政經局勢動盪,不急於吸入,形成買賣兩閒的局面。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">踏入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月上半月,日均交投急增至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1,451</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">億餘元的水平,有大戶趁低掃貨,情況是極為明顯的。在估值吸引時,衹要政經局勢稍緩和,大資金開始吸入後,令到早前的沽空者平倉,上升的力度得以維持,以至增強。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第三,今番恒指跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點見底後,兩週餘後已升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">18,343</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,等於今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月低點的水平。跌市進入最後一擊由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">22</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月低點開始,歷時衹為八週,現已升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">18,343</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點之上。衹要此後守穩於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月低點之上,可以肯定跌市已於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點見底,宜留意。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">與此相關的是,今次的大跌市一如既往,亦是以尖底,亦即「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">v</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">」底作結。在月綫的圖表上,最近八週是否形成一個「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">v</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">」字的型態?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第四,移動平均綫的表現大為改善,並且露出大有機會轉勢向上的勢頭。以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日收市指數計算,恒指企於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">18,343</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,升破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線(位於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">16,621</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,在向上急升)、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">20</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> 16,065</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,在上升)及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">50</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> 17,205</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,在回落),未升破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">100</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">18,862</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,在回落),及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> 21,040</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,在回落)。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今番恒指肯定升破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">50</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線,而且能守穩於其上,已肇示大市可中期轉勢向上。同時,恒指於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月升破,且守穩於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">100</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線之上,亦不困難。至於挑戰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線,相信是明年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月的事。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">各線的排列開始回復正常,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線升破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">20</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線,此兩條線升破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">50</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天線,料會於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份內出現。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">坊間有一些論者覺得,今次可能會演變成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2007</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2008</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年式的大跌市,當時恒指由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2007</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">31,638</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,一年後暴跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2008</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11,015</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,大跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">65.2%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,乃舉世知名的金融海嘯事件。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">該事件乃世界性的,席捲全球。今番衹是港股受重創,其次為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股,歐美的股市跌幅比中港細得多。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">現時很多西方的金融名嘴大力唱淡美股,指稱金融風暴在醞釀,遲早會爆大鑊。稍具經驗者都知道,此輩或其朋友很可能揸了大量空倉,因而猛唱淡。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不要忘記,美國的聯儲局整體上以國家的利益為上,如果經濟呈現大衰退的危機,可以立刻停止加息,並且急速減息,不會受大炒家的言論所左右。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本港一些人害怕恒指會跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,可能源於對中國二十大後的經濟政策之誤解。他們誤以為「共富」等於平分財富,例如大企業可能受到諸多掣肘,不准賺大錢等。殊不知國家的本意是較前注重財富的分配,並非走回頭路。將餅做大,人人得益,才是中心思想。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">從目前的形勢看,不用理會此輩的看法。真正的走勢派相信,各派的想法及真正的意圖,已於股市的升跌及走勢反映,蓋股市走在經濟的前頭,亦走在政治局勢的前頭。因為一定有春江鴨(搭通天地線者),先行一步。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">總括而言,跌市已於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">見底的機會,達到九成,除非爆出驚天動地的政治大新聞,才會跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">14,687 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,再創新低。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若然手上資金充裕,持貨輕者,此時可入市擇肥而噬,持有一年,達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">100%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上的回報,並非難事。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">網站:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">www.facebook.com/larrychchow / www.stocks-energy.com </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(2022</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">16</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日完稿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">)</span></p>
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{page:WordSection1;}</style></p>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-12346866357403265452022-12-21T19:16:00.002+08:002022-12-21T19:21:55.918+08:00<div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"> <span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">文章分享:以年綫圖探測股市底點</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">原刊於《信報月刊</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">》,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2022年11月號,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">「</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">張公道投資智慧</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">」</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">專欄</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月綫圖為股市分析的一項重要指標,十二個個月組成一年,故此年綫圖源於月綫。一個月或一年究竟是形成先低後高,還是先高後低,對走勢影響極大。在全港的分析者中,個人為首創使用此指標的先驅。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1970</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年開始,港股曾出現若干次連續數年先高後低的大跌市型態,包括</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(1)
1981-1982-1983</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的三年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(2)1997-1998-1999-2000-2001-2002</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的六年(此次</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1999</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年曾出現大反彈)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(3)2018-2019-2020-2021-2022</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2019</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">曾出現反彈)的五年。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">三次大跌市都與政治及金融風暴有關。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1981-1983</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">那一次牽涉</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1997</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年中國收回香港主權的談判;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1997-2002</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">那一次初因亞洲金融風暴引致,其後科網股爆破,繼</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">而香港爆發沙士疫症;由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2018</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年開始的一次,由美國無端對中國貨徵收額外關稅,跟着香港爆發黑暴運動,中央政府通過國安法止暴,同一時間舉世被疫症蹂躪。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">正因為連續數年先高後低,亦即下跌,才會跌得如斯慘烈。那末,月綫圖的長期走勢反映,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">跌市將跌至那個水平,以及底點何時出現?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">請留意下列各點:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1. </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">長期月綫圖清楚顯示,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> 16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點會有強力支持,即使跌穿,頂多再跌千餘點,跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">15,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點應可守穩,除非世間的大國真正動武,在核武可毁滅全人類的背景下,個人不相信兩個擁有核武的國家會直接作軍事對抗,但可能打代理人戰爭,對股市都極為不利。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
2. </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">恒指第一次升上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點乃</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2007</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月,恒指升至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">31,638</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,其後爆發金融海嘯,恒指於一年後跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2008</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11,015</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,衹跌剩三分一,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">十分慘烈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">圖一</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">]</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">圖一:恒生指數過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">15</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的走勢月綫圖</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<br clear="ALL" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;" />
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">資料來源:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">AASTOCKS</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">然後經過十年的升升跌跌,恒指於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2018</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月升上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">33,154</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的歷史高峰,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11,015</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">升上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">33,154 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,大升三倍,上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">22,139</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點。由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2018</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月反覆下跌,跌至今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">6,389</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,已經反覆下跌四年零十個月,跌幅巨大兼時間漫長。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">以比例理論計算,前一個上升大浪共升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">22,139</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,如果今番回落總跌幅的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">0.764</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">比率,浪底處於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">16,240</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,與本文上述所指出的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點脗合。各位看官留意,此中涉及兩個不同的量度方法,結果衹差</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,非常神奇!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
3. </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">假設世間無熱戰,意指無大規模軍事衝突,衹有口水戰,互相威嚇,則跌市的底點大有可能於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月出現。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">自有紀錄以來,港股的最長一次跌市由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1973</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1,774</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,跌至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1974</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">150</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點﹐歷時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">9 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">個月,跌幅達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">91.5%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。如果今番由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">31,085</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點之回落,歷史重演,則跌市底將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月出現</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">應指出,過去三年恒指不斷更改成份股,每次季檢都有新股加入,其中最重要的改變乃不斷加入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">股公司,以及其中的科技股。現時重磅的科技股基本上主宰恒指的升跌,其次為金融類。港股已漸大陸化,影響深遠。正因如此,恒指的走勢會否與</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2018</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年前截然不同,兩者不可直接比較,值得思量。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">此外,由於以美國為首的西方集團要打壓中國,令到很多中國企業的前景蒙上陰影,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">起碼短期如此</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">;更為嚴重的是,不少西方國家的基金不再持有港股,以配合政府的政策,此等因素嚴重打擊港股,股民不可不防,蓋坊間的股評鮮有提及其破壞力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">無論怎樣看,港股已跌得極殘。首先,以「均值回歸」理論看,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">13</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日之</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">16,389</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點已經跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">360</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">個月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(30</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的移平綫水平,後者位於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">17,887</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點。意指此時沽貨,在過去三十年平均價買入的股民,皆要虧蝕,誰人有興趣沽出?其次,由去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月下跌至今,大市已反覆下跌一年零八個月,那些實力不足或恐慌者,早已減磅或清貨離市,不會到此時才沽出,此點從近月成交銳減可看到。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">此外,中央政府希望香港的「一國兩制」成功推行,其中一個原因是要香港扮演一個國際金融中心,廣納全球資金。換言之,中央政府也希望港股正常運作。有理由相信,如果港股出狀況,中央政府不會坐視不理。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">最後,從較樂觀的角度看,若然國際疫情稍緩,各國先後通關,全球的經濟將復甦,屆時即使中西鬥爭仍在,股市亦必有相當幅度的彈升,雖然未必是轉勢向上,但明年首季恒指彈升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">22,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點的區域,並非奢望。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">上面第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(2)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點所用乃極長期的走勢資料,另一方面亦可以最近的一個大跌浪計算,此浪始於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">31,065</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,以跌浪運行的時間計算,浪底最遲會於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月中出現。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
4. </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">最後以今年的走勢分析,今年的高點為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">21</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">24,966</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,如果今年低點跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">16,240</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,高低點波幅達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">35%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,已經超乎一般的波幅,意指非常符合見底的要求。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">綜合而言,年綫圖反映,跌市近底,跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">16,250</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">左右,可開始放心吸入。將資金分注投入,以策萬全。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">(2022</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">10 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">16</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; line-height: 200%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日完稿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 200%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">)</span></p>
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{page:WordSection1;}</style></p>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-10295115977329536932022-09-29T16:33:00.003+08:002022-09-29T16:33:22.552+08:00<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文章分享:政府應留意股市危機</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">刊於</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">29</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">週四</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,《文匯報》財經版</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今周一的拙稿指出,港股的大跌市底點有望於</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月或</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月出現,恒指跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">16,250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">將有強力支持,但在最壞情況下,恒指可能跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">16,000-15,000</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點範圍內。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">港股受政治因素打擊</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">恒指昨以</span><span lang="EN-US">17,250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點收市,或許正在向上述的目標滑落。港股深受政治因素所打擊,其中的細節無需詳述。以美國為首的西方集團打壓中國,無所不用其極。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在本港上市的公司很多都受到制裁,其中某些重磅的科技股尤其嚴重;其次某些資源股如中海油</span><span lang="EN-US">(0883)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">被迫退市,電訊股的業務受到限制,可以說港股動輒得咎。一些股民已經完全撤出港股,只買賣外國股票。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一些資深的頂級金融界人士在友儕的私訊中指出,政府不應袖手旁觀,任由港股瀉下去。請留意,港股急瀉,對本港強積金及公積金的持有者有何影響,稍後公布時便清楚。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那些國際大炒家及一小撮人搭通天地線,一直放心沽空,因為壞消息接踵而至,此舉對普通的街外人極為不利。在如此環境下,政府的財金官員不應不聞不問。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">為着公眾的利益,可以採取多項措施,如增加期指的按金,限制股份的沽空活動,徹查空倉是否一切合規等。在其他國家,當金融危機醞釀到危險程度時,政府都會干預。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">政府於</span><span lang="EN-US">1998</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年亦曾入市打大鱷,特區政府不應再不聞不問,否則便是失職。</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">原文網址:</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202209/29/AP6334af2ce4b033218a6531f4.html">https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202209/29/AP6334af2ce4b033218a6531f4.html</a></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">=</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">附註</span><span lang="EN-US">=</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「以年綫圖剖析:是否股災重臨」的文章正在售賣,衹要於</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日或前繳款,下週一即可讀到該文。</span><span lang="EN-US">[</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">訂閱網站:</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338">http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338</a>]
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<p></p>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-56612859541850985202022-09-28T17:52:00.005+08:002022-09-28T17:52:37.010+08:00<p> </p><div class="" dir="auto"><div class="d2hqwtrz r227ecj6 ez8dtbzv gt60zsk1" data-ad-comet-preview="message" data-ad-preview="message" id="jsc_c_6g"><div class="alzwoclg cqf1kptm siwo0mpr gu5uzgus"><div class="jroqu855 nthtkgg5"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gvxzyvdx aeinzg81 t7p7dqev gh25dzvf exr7barw b6ax4al1 gem102v4 ncib64c9 mrvwc6qr sx8pxkcf f597kf1v cpcgwwas m2nijcs8 hxfwr5lz k1z55t6l oog5qr5w tes86rjd pbevjfx6 ztn2w49o" dir="auto"><div class="m8h3af8h l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">特別短評:跌市進入最後一擊</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">2022年9月28日(週三),下午5時45分發表</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">大市於上週四跌跛今年3月低點18,235後,今天最低跌落17,184點,即再跌千多點。9月份的股市由頭跌到尾,高低波幅達12%!非常明顯,跌市進入最後一擊的階段。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><span></span>多種指標顯示,跌市將於未來一兩個月見底,股民宜早一步制訂策略,抓緊機遇,作買賣用。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">個人的「以年綫圖剖析:是否股災重臨」的文章正在售賣,衹要於10月2日或前繳款,下週一即可讀到該文。[訂閱網站:<span><a class="qi72231t nu7423ey n3hqoq4p r86q59rh b3qcqh3k fq87ekyn bdao358l fsf7x5fv rse6dlih s5oniofx m8h3af8h l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk srn514ro oxkhqvkx rl78xhln nch0832m cr00lzj9 rn8ck1ys s3jn8y49 icdlwmnq cxfqmxzd ezidihy3" href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338&fbclid=IwAR1KvyspUdoXCQvnG24BJKt25SEqthp8zrPmZBpN87gAHcXBKgQEd8uqm0s" rel="nofollow noopener" role="link" tabindex="0" target="_blank">http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338</a></span>]</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">此外,由10月開始的核心文章將加強內容,增設一個模擬投資組合。此組合不設投資資金額,衹提供股票名稱及吸入價位,每週一刊出。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">很多經紀行都設一週內有效的賣買盤,股民無需天天看價,到價便吸入,更為便利。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgatjggalJlbPxpj5W-JjmNnppOcCzJLncMUc9z1vLUHurlUry6WbzLWV0pRjmnfrMCD3HzrgMoCw1SnaleGT4rJE8kvrOAfwdKvTsIgkw0tb4z-3vNK-4bvrvHwCK2VC1mSs6oOseB6oVp48tfAY2I6zlQxKb88K941RggPh67Mekh16FJ95Lx5gMy/s1170/WhatsApp%20Image%202022-09-23%20at%206.06.43%20PM.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="769" data-original-width="1170" height="421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgatjggalJlbPxpj5W-JjmNnppOcCzJLncMUc9z1vLUHurlUry6WbzLWV0pRjmnfrMCD3HzrgMoCw1SnaleGT4rJE8kvrOAfwdKvTsIgkw0tb4z-3vNK-4bvrvHwCK2VC1mSs6oOseB6oVp48tfAY2I6zlQxKb88K941RggPh67Mekh16FJ95Lx5gMy/w640-h421/WhatsApp%20Image%202022-09-23%20at%206.06.43%20PM.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> </div></div></span></span></div></div></div></div>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-64173508344119403002022-03-21T17:57:00.002+08:002022-03-21T17:59:18.544+08:00文章分享:2022年復甦 還是二十年一大劫?<div dir="auto"><div class="ecm0bbzt hv4rvrfc ihqw7lf3 dati1w0a" data-ad-comet-preview="message" data-ad-preview="message" id="jsc_c_25"><div class="j83agx80 cbu4d94t ew0dbk1b irj2b8pg"><div class="qzhwtbm6 knvmm38d"><span class="d2edcug0 hpfvmrgz qv66sw1b c1et5uql lr9zc1uh a8c37x1j fe6kdd0r mau55g9w c8b282yb keod5gw0 nxhoafnm aigsh9s9 d3f4x2em iv3no6db jq4qci2q a3bd9o3v b1v8xokw oo9gr5id hzawbc8m" dir="auto" style="font-size: medium;"><div class="kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">自國安法通過後,香港第二次回歸,改朝換代。港股二十年一大劫的宿命延續。危中有大機,請細閱下文。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> * * * * <span class="d2edcug0 hpfvmrgz qv66sw1b c1et5uql lr9zc1uh a8c37x1j fe6kdd0r mau55g9w c8b282yb keod5gw0 nxhoafnm aigsh9s9 d3f4x2em iv3no6db jq4qci2q a3bd9o3v b1v8xokw oo9gr5id hzawbc8m" dir="auto"> *<br /><br /><br /><br /></span></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">文章分享:2022年復甦 還是二十年一大劫?</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">2021年恒指的高點為2月的31,084點,低點為12月的22,744點,年底以23,397點收市。去年高低點俱比前年之29,056點及21,696點為高,但由於去年形成先高後低,因而收市指數比前年之27,231點回落3,834點,即下跌14.1%。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">2022年的市況如何?可開宗明義指出,除非今年繼續出現翻天覆地的政治或金融風暴,否則2022年應為港股的復甦時期。根據個人所編製的年綫測市系統其中最重要的一項指標-----升跌韻律,亦即每年高低點出現的時序,今年的恒指極可能形成先低後高,意指年底收市指數將上升,高於去年的23,397點。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">自1970年恒指有較詳盡的統計資料以來,過去52年凡連跌兩年或三年的時期,都有特殊事件發生,尤其是連跌三年更為轟動。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">1) 1973-1974年連跌兩年,港股出現第一次股災。2) 1981-1982-1983連跌三年,中英談判1997年後香港的前途,風雲變色,1984年草簽聯合聲明後,局勢才定下來。 3) 1997-1998連跌兩年,香港回歸中國兼遇上亞洲金融風暴。4) 2000-2001-2002連跌三年,科網股爆破及沙士疫症,一片愁雲慘霧。5) 近期2020-2021年連跌兩年,實乃源於2018年花旗大統領川普之挑起貿易戰,其後演變成中西衝突,以及新八國聯軍圍中土的大場面,由2018至2021形成「跌升跌跌」,四年跌三年的慘況,香江正處於一個新的改朝換代時期。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">今年的高點會處於那一個水平?根據年綫圖上,每年的高點由最高水平依次而下排列,自2007年迄今15年,把最高水平的8年表列出來[表一],有強烈理由相信,2022年的高點起碼會升回29,056至27,615的區域內。無獨有偶,坊間很多大行預測今年的高點就在此範圍。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxA2yoAQcfDbffzC6CjeBhC9fSDBDPzlxckIvuCjzpXXCH1SsDPq_BCKgMyEOWVpyH2VuIHVUx0uGoKukjjT-Z-dpcrNTVTyKmc5X0p323SS1JEXTLd0_r_tMEpXhpWrDT-CJfUXGbQ0EUCm29FSUFAhTa8l5NApTCKkT9rPdG3MSNZnScrG6TGH6q/s1024/275502589_1288667618322306_3186706170294166764_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="426" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxA2yoAQcfDbffzC6CjeBhC9fSDBDPzlxckIvuCjzpXXCH1SsDPq_BCKgMyEOWVpyH2VuIHVUx0uGoKukjjT-Z-dpcrNTVTyKmc5X0p323SS1JEXTLd0_r_tMEpXhpWrDT-CJfUXGbQ0EUCm29FSUFAhTa8l5NApTCKkT9rPdG3MSNZnScrG6TGH6q/s320/275502589_1288667618322306_3186706170294166764_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" width="133" /></a></div></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">個人的測市系統內,有多種指標可探測今年的高點,經詳細分析後,推算的結果與上述簡易的目視法,相差無幾。測市幾十年,很多老手都了解,簡單的指標最實用!</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">其次,今年的低點可能在那個水平?套用上述的同一個方法,表列過去十年年綫低點最高的數字,亦為由高至低排列[表二]。非常明顯,過去十年有六年的低點在21,182點之上,七年在20,556點之上,衹有三年跌落19,000-18,000的水平。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34cGUiQOVksbSV2-TG0-HCDBd3OqjNaFBDLoFGya-9GjTaTnYYVXxJiuzFne1cHM-pWFAYzsvBeePW0k6CI_C0m3MXZ4rRx8iKJEM0ufj80-tnJZ58eq1zjRrxA45QwaKF-9m-bT6PhBU_EB3TDaqlw9PcPXBSwnLkQTIFpJFKimmjI8bfrGGtL2W/s1024/275844368_1288667604988974_8109872991702195598_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="277" data-original-width="1024" height="87" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34cGUiQOVksbSV2-TG0-HCDBd3OqjNaFBDLoFGya-9GjTaTnYYVXxJiuzFne1cHM-pWFAYzsvBeePW0k6CI_C0m3MXZ4rRx8iKJEM0ufj80-tnJZ58eq1zjRrxA45QwaKF-9m-bT6PhBU_EB3TDaqlw9PcPXBSwnLkQTIFpJFKimmjI8bfrGGtL2W/s320/275844368_1288667604988974_8109872991702195598_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">套入「均值回歸」理論的長期移平綫看,目前恒指的180個月(15年)的移平綫位於23,488點,228個月(19年)則位於21,430。上述數字反映,如果2022年低點處於23,488水平,大市已跌回過去15年均價的估值,若然跌落21,430的水平,更跌回19年均價的低殘水平。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">要做務實的測市,除却眾多走勢指標外,還需看股票的估值,是否偏高、偏低還是合理。一些九流的專家拿著某套理論(如波浪理論),不理現實,作出種種荒唐的預測,衹會留為笑柄。從估值看,港股已處於合理(如果今年經濟遇上大問題)至偏低的水平(若然今年經濟無大礙),因而可推算到2022年的低點不會跌穿前年的21,696點。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">此外,由於今年低點的水平已探測到,而今年多數會形成先低後高,那末根據年綫圖每年高低點的波動幅度,即可推算出今年的高點水平,並且與上述第一個方法的結果比較,看看兩者脗合與否。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">今年迄今的低點為1月的22,907點,雖然時間尚早,但不排除此為今年低點。當然如果市況較淡,遲些恒指可能跌回22,000點,以至去年低位的21,696,才正式向上找尋全年的高點。一年高低點的波幅通常在26%至30%之間,下表列出好淡市況的數據。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTW1CZAY7QhNCbkH805PF4hXo3SkGKnPePNI7le0jAmcDGvgh5VOWmEcIcAjbNjfBMl58hnDP1U14NRnwC7o7G22ap2bXIBNR4skPv1EfwXys-jnqkC2L_ODO7lX_LbMBR2TZ3XP5awjUkSSS3bnybhAbBKYiIW-taeC9mI_vcUbo3fUOQ7O9y_Xo9/s1024/276071154_1288667634988971_1484271550430326836_n.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="1024" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTW1CZAY7QhNCbkH805PF4hXo3SkGKnPePNI7le0jAmcDGvgh5VOWmEcIcAjbNjfBMl58hnDP1U14NRnwC7o7G22ap2bXIBNR4skPv1EfwXys-jnqkC2L_ODO7lX_LbMBR2TZ3XP5awjUkSSS3bnybhAbBKYiIW-taeC9mI_vcUbo3fUOQ7O9y_Xo9/s320/276071154_1288667634988971_1484271550430326836_n.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">此方法的推算結果,與第一個方法十分脗合,即使從偏淡的角度看,今年的高點亦會升回27,337點的水平。倘若市況穩好,高點更可升回29,000點之上。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">在最糟糕的境況下,今次會弄到如1981-1983及2000-2002年一樣,連跌三年,那末2022年仍會再跌,呈現先高後低的敗局,果如此,則今年的高點多數無法升越26,800點,根據波幅26%及30%計算,今年低點將分別跌落19,832及18,760點!即跌回2013年的水平。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">倘若後面的情景出現,則過去四十年港股遇上二十年一大劫的厄運:第一劫,1981-1983年中英談判「1997問題」,中國決定1997後收回香港,實行「一國兩制,高度自治」。第二劫,1997年香港回歸,旋即遇上亞洲金融風暴;2000年科網股爆破,其後2002年爆發沙士疫症。第三劫,2018年美國對中國挑起貿易戰,其後衝突全面擴闊,迄今未有緩解的跡象。是否有二十年一大劫的宿命呢?</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">個人的測市系統內,其他探測一年高低點的指標,如一年高點及低點與早一年高低點的距離,以及一年高低點與早一年收市指數的距離,所計算出來的結果,與上述的預測基本上脗合,這裡不列出數據。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">個人不認為今番會形成連跌三年,意指2022年並非先高後低,而是先低後高的上升年份,港股將復活。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">其他大行如何看今年的港股?</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">基金大都對今年的股市滿腹狐疑,不敢看好[表四]。個人根據一己獨創的分析系統,看得較樂觀。除非中西爭拗最終演變成大翻枱,雖非開戰,(在核彈存在的今日,無人敢打核戰),但經濟全面割裂,才會搞出新一個連跌三年,香港重複二十年一大劫的厄運。</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMj2eKOwufa-iZbxtnbIqvSv-xO4j3px5tkFyIDEespD_VAW-FB4rubw3M83IgXQYTa4mj-2wM-Wr-cxvIaWdNeIORWoLTt266rIupeS_cbKJN16UZcx2qUGR9t1IdPlOz7SLk9c5GEWU7JuFYxXPtznRGPJaKzKQWFMx9ftFgFFHf5ddPx-S1mZc9/s1024/275561716_1288667678322300_5705792845859549554_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="1024" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMj2eKOwufa-iZbxtnbIqvSv-xO4j3px5tkFyIDEespD_VAW-FB4rubw3M83IgXQYTa4mj-2wM-Wr-cxvIaWdNeIORWoLTt266rIupeS_cbKJN16UZcx2qUGR9t1IdPlOz7SLk9c5GEWU7JuFYxXPtznRGPJaKzKQWFMx9ftFgFFHf5ddPx-S1mZc9/s320/275561716_1288667678322300_5705792845859549554_n%20-%20%E8%A4%87%E8%A3%BD.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">(於2022年1月完稿)</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">[原刊於《信報月刊》3月號,「張公道投資智慧」專欄]</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">網站:<span><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 py34i1dx" href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?fbclid=IwAR0O34JEL3Fbw4pAFfe12lV1sF4baZjhZ20AwMId-BSvuwyDZFTqn9Z95NU" rel="nofollow noopener" role="link" tabindex="0" target="_blank">www.stocks-energy.com</a></span></div></div></span></div></div></div></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-76666792467679103042020-07-22T16:03:00.000+08:002020-07-24T16:03:36.492+08:00文章分享:國泰原油對沖大敗家 政府宜問責<div class="_39k5 _5s6c">
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國泰最近陷入財困,後來獲得政府出資拯救。國泰面臨多年的虧蝕,管治上可能有問題,例如,前些年油價平穩之時,公司仍年年做對沖,而且對沖數量比其他國際油公司大,因而招致巨額虧損。政府宜藉此契機向國泰高層了解箇中原因,一眾尊貴的立法會議員,亦應留意上述問題。</div>
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<span class="_4yxo">國泰原油對沖大敗家 政府宜問責</span></div>
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原刊於《信報月刊》2020年7月號,「張公道投資智慧」專欄</div>
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港府今次出手拯救國泰,性質上為過渡性資金,恍如買入國泰的債券作收息用,最終可連本帶利收回資金。但政府注資後,是否應與國泰的最高層檢討一下公司的管治問題?其中一項早已引起筆者注意的是,國泰多年來在原油對沖上每年數十億元計的巨額虧損。</div>
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香港為國際金融中心,亦為國際航空樞紐之一,航空業一直扮演着十分重要的角色。其中以國泰(00293)為本港航空業的橋頭堡,佔了本港每年航空的57%客運量以及41%貨運量。港府不可能讓國泰倒閉,自不待言。</div>
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受新冠肺炎疫情影響,全球飛機大規模停飛,各地的航空業經營環境變得異常嚴峻,國泰最近亦陷入財困,公司日前宣布資本重組計劃籌集390億元,其中包括政府透過「土地基金」出資273 億元,以及供股集資117億元。</div>
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政府出資的273 億元中,涉及認購195 億元的國泰優先股,以及提供78 億元的有抵押貸款。買入此等優先股,政府將享有優厚的利息回報,料將高於過去6 年「土地基金」3.7% 之年均回報;同時預期國泰將於5 年內完全贖回該等股份,因為第六年起利息非常高。</div>
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供股方面,國泰將以每股4.68元、按11 供7 的比例供股,較停牌前的8.81 元大幅折讓46.8%,如此大比例、大折讓的供股,猶如替持有該股的股民「飛了髮」,就算不供股,手上的股票實際上亦貶了值。無獨有偶,2009 年3 月,滙控(00005)宣布以每股28 元、每12 股供5股,集資1380億元,較停牌前的56.95 元大幅折讓五成,令一眾持有者欲哭無淚。</div>
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國泰完成今番供股後股權分布為:太古佔42.26%、國航佔28.17%、卡塔爾航空佔9.38%,港府則佔6.08%。</div>
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整體而言,上述的安排尚屬合理,政府今次出手拯救國泰,性質上為過渡性資金,猶如買入國泰的債券作收息用,最終可連本帶利收回資金。但政府注資後,是否應與國泰的最高層檢討一下公司的管治問題?其中一項早已引起筆者注意的是,國泰多年來在原油對沖上每年數十億元計的巨額虧損。</div>
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燃油是每間航空公司最重要的開支之一,若在油價大波動之時,做對沖以鎖定油價,或可收穩定燃料開支的效果。惟此中涉及兩大問題:何以在過去油價相對穩定之時,國泰仍然做對沖?為何國泰的原油對沖數額往往高於其他國際航空公司?</div>
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宜從石油市場的基礎因素作分析,請留意以下三點:</div>
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其一,回顧油價的歷史走勢。2008至2009 年國際油價翻雲覆雨,先於2008 年7月飆上147美元的歷史高峰,及後金融風暴爆發,觸發油價急挫至2008年12 月的32美元。直至2009年環球經濟開始復甦,帶領油價從低位翻了1.5 倍,並於2009 年10 月重上82 美元。自2010 年起,除2016 年及2020 年外,油價大部分時間並無大波動,參看每年的高低波幅便清楚〔見表〕,例如,2011至2013年,油價相對穩定,年波幅在35% 以內;2014 至2016 年的三年則較波動,年波幅分別為-51%、-46% 及+109%。2017 至2019年,油價又回復穩定,大部分時間在42至77美元之間遊走。總括而言,2008 至2020 年十三年間,只有4 年屬大波動年份(年波幅達80%以上),其餘大部分時間皆處穩定水平,那麼航空公司真箇有需要年年做對沖嗎?</div>
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<img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="640" id="u_0_3" src="https://scontent.fhkg4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p720x720/115824037_889000141622391_4421151838935202875_o.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=32a93c&_nc_ohc=I_8GJXJfaZkAX88FASi&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg4-2.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=317cfe075aecc070fcaaeb3b6465903a&oe=5F3E63DF" width="548" /></div>
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其二,探討本港的航空燃料供應。航空公司所耗用的為航空煤油(jet fuel),其性質近似火水,但前者需要非常潔淨,不能含有雜質,因它是供噴射機的引擎用,若然含雜質,可引致嚴重問題。</div>
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香港現為世上三大加油中心之一,每年耗用大量航空及輪船加油的石油產品,以2018 年為例,本港航空煤油的銷量為84.4 億公升,輪船加油的銷量為124.4億公升,兩者總銷量為208.8億公升,相當於本港油品總銷量的81.7%。</div>
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目前本港的煤油主要有三個來源地,分別為:77% 來自中國大陸,11.9%來自台灣,以及7.5% 來自南韓。一直以來,本港的煤油供應非常充裕,國泰每年做對沖,可能有其他考量。</div>
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其三,窺探期油市場的本質。真正的油品採購與買賣期油是兩碼子的事,航空公司所耗用的是航空煤油,而期油市場是用來對沖原油(crude oil)價格用,而非航空煤油,那麼航空公司緣何要買賣原油期貨呢?</div>
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期油市場主要有兩大功能:1)讓一些大石油買家如航空公司做對沖,以便調控未來的燃料成本,務求減低營運風險。2)一些大經紀行或炒家,以此作為對賭的工具。現貨油市場與期油市場的性質截然不同。現貨油市場涉及真正的石油貿易,石油買家可透過經紀下單買現貨油,該等石油可能已在運油輪上;期油市場則不同,幾乎99%的合約皆不涉及實物交收,如真有交收,亦只限於美國本土之內,但為數甚少;反映絕大多數期油參與者乃以賭博為主。</div>
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一直以來,期油價格基本上由一些國際大勢力所操控,它們把油價舞高弄低而圖利,因此才會出現今年5 月美國期油以負油價結算,以及爆出中國銀行一款與美國期油掛勾的投資產品「原油寶」,因未能及時為客戶平倉或轉倉,令一眾持有好倉者需倒貼巨款才能脫身的事。</div>
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根據國泰今年3 月的公布,目前公司的燃油對沖比率達四成,平均對沖價格為每桶65 美元,若以現價每桶13 美元計算,潛在虧損達80%!問題是國泰已因原油對沖虧蝕經年,何以這麼多年,公司的最高管理層仍無人嚴肅認真地研究箇中原因,徹底檢討該事項?政府今番注資,宜藉此機會,向國泰高層反映上述的管理問題。</div>
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(於2020年6月16日完稿)</div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-63123573190539013042020-07-14T16:04:00.000+08:002020-07-24T16:04:44.136+08:00<br />
<span class="oi732d6d ik7dh3pa d2edcug0 qv66sw1b c1et5uql a8c37x1j muag1w35 ew0dbk1b jq4qci2q a3bd9o3v knj5qynh oo9gr5id" dir="auto">上週日的新書發佈會圓滿結束,謝謝各位捧場!<br /><span><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl oo9gr5id gpro0wi8 lrazzd5p" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%BD%A0%E8%A6%81%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E7%90%86%E8%B2%A1%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%9A%8488%E4%BB%B6%E4%BA%8B?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWyWhYVTRoTd7MTQFBgCf7tuouJYTa5K5rFMIh-iJ72iyV9NDlLGnbGHRtN6ZHhcPT5H3z64mfUZe1WltDrgi82SJgxL8hyjKXcNRMqxP7ODkW_u21IMe-V54P6VdieYZhgWHwUqFbIrM9kJZ7u7RxrQpYGLPHA622cTjTyRH9u8w&__tn__=*NK*F" role="link" tabindex="0">#你要知道理財投資的88件事</a></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdn_vLvrQOE0MI-W9nWJf9wBwtN5eBjaQH2cGNxARknGn93Lg6_vROF7Aiv72fxw1XrI7gX3q82uQaqudu-ULQ5tb1h4j3jYCbGblORdSYMtMXbJ03WGc8PkbtRRvTAMgIKDS26Uv2kls/s1600/WhatsApp+Image+2020-07-14+at+16.42.54.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1600" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdn_vLvrQOE0MI-W9nWJf9wBwtN5eBjaQH2cGNxARknGn93Lg6_vROF7Aiv72fxw1XrI7gX3q82uQaqudu-ULQ5tb1h4j3jYCbGblORdSYMtMXbJ03WGc8PkbtRRvTAMgIKDS26Uv2kls/s640/WhatsApp+Image+2020-07-14+at+16.42.54.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-82209609850571652002020-06-22T16:06:00.000+08:002020-07-24T16:07:42.931+08:00文章分享:投資憑常識 低吸石油航空股<div class="_39k5 _5s6c">
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此文談及港股及投資策略,至今仍有價值。</div>
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<pre class="_19ik" dir="ltr"><span class="_2cuy _19ii _2vxa"> * * * * * * *</span></pre>
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<span class="_4yxo">投資憑常識 低吸石油航空股</span></div>
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原刊於《信報月刊》,2020年6月號,「張公道投資智慧」專欄 </div>
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作投資切忌失卻常識,誤信詭辯。疫情一退卻,經濟重開,航空業便復甦,這個世界能夠無飛機而運轉?同理,未來二三十年石油仍將為最重要的能源,國際油價能長期企於目下這個價格,一個全行業虧蝕的價格?</div>
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港股自今年1 月20 日的高位29174 點回落,最低跌至3月19日的21139點,兩個月大跌8035 點,跌幅達27.5%。今年的高低點是否就在此一範圍內,目前無人知道。</div>
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從年線圖看,一年高低點的波幅達27.5%,已可滿足一般的要求,但一年的高低點於兩個月內出現,卻十分罕見!換言之,在今年餘下的時間,恒指大有可能向上升越29174 或向下跌穿21139,令到高低點出現的時序拉闊,符合一般年份的韻律。</div>
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此外,近月由3月21139點開始的大反彈,最高僅彈升至4 月29 日的24855 點,反彈3716 點,等於反彈前時跌幅的0.462 比率,反彈浪運行的時間僅得1 個月10天。有強力理由相信,大反彈仍未見頂。〔圖一〕</div>
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<img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="313" id="u_0_3" src="https://scontent.fhkg4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p720x720/104330509_867423417113397_8977590452158392604_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=32a93c&_nc_ohc=LfxYp0h4xpEAX8z-6Da&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg4-1.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=0e22f0c8191d67bf3b82ebce2313bef3&oe=5F4080A8" width="640" /></div>
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反彈料見25156</div>
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一來彈幅太細,經過天崩地裂式的下瀉,無論如何最少會反彈跌幅的0.5 比率,那末恒指將見25156 點;反彈跌幅的0.618及0.764比率,恒指可分別升至26105 及27278 點。換言之,目前彈幅太細,反彈應未見頂。</div>
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二來反彈的時間衹為時六周,不符合一般大反彈運行時間的條件,後面應有高點出現。若然將上述年線圖的訊號及反彈幅度及時間合併來看,投資者會感到迷惘,後市是升還是跌?</div>
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由於客觀環境惡劣,中美爭拗、肺炎及經濟停頓,香港加上政治抗爭事件,理性一些看,港股似不具備上升條件,反而予人隨時會再下瀉的感覺。因此,不少分析者覺得,反彈可能已完結,說不定又再下滑。</div>
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個人並不如此悲觀,請留意:3 月的21139 點肯定為一個重要的中期甚至長期低點。這個經過恐慌性拋售,以超龐大成交做成的底部,通常乃是跌市的第一個底,這個底不會再輕易跌穿,除非又爆出驚世的政經大事件,例如大國在軍事上開戰,或各國解封後,迅速爆發第二波疫情,而且比第一波更恐怖。</div>
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前已指出,大跌市的底部常以雙底或三底組成,雙底即高低腳,如恒指於2008 至2009 年金融海嘯時一樣;三底可能為頭肩底,如2011 年歐債危機時的港股。形成整個底部是需要時間的,可能為半年,亦可能為九個月,甚至一年。現時距3 月19日只得兩個月,時間尚早,大市有一段時間在底部的區間上落,消磨股民的意志,大戶則張開大袋,密密收集。</div>
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以均值回歸理論看,恒指處於21139 點時,已經跌回17 年移平線的水平(21228 點),非常低殘,P/E 極低,甚具吸引力。以平常心看,除非香港陸沉,股市還能再跌多少呢?跌至17年移平線,意指自2003 年1 月入貨的股民,平均而言已經無錢賺,試想還有多少人願意沽貨?亦即股價十分低殘,長線投資者可開始分段吸入。即使以5 月18 日的收市指數23934計算,仍然處於十年移動平均線之下(23976 點),反映當日買貨平於過去十年的均價,應不會吃大虧。</div>
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未來數月股市於底部上落</div>
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應留意的是,如果世界各國解封後,疫情受控,不再爆發廣泛的新二波疫情,則各國經濟可以迅速復甦。事緣各國政府都欲重振經濟,以解民困,亦拯救政客們,人民水深火熱,無法維持生計,政局怎會安穩?分析者切勿忽視此點,否則可能被殺個措手不及。</div>
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現實點看,近月的困境所引來的後遺症也不可能於短時間內完全清理,因而未來數月股市於底部區域上落,完成整個底部才轉勢向上,亦屬合理。</div>
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現轉而談談一些近期熱門話題。畢非德沽清航空股,是否代表該類股份已無前景?同樣道理,在油價跌返1970 年代的水平時,不少人唱淡石油股,誤以為石油已經無前途,世間不再需要石油,可再生能源將滿足能源需求。</div>
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作投資切忌失卻常識,誤信詭辯。疫情一退卻,經濟重開,航空業便復甦,這個世界能夠無飛機而運轉?〔圖三〕同理,未來二三十年石油仍將為最重要的能源,國際油價能長期企於目下這個價格,一個全行業虧蝕的價格?〔圖二〕</div>
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從「均值回歸」平買貴賣的理論看,此刻正是吸入航空及石油股的最佳時機!為求穩健,可先吸入一半,到有跡象真正轉勢向上之時,再吸入一半。</div>
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對整體大市的看法也是一樣,近日基本上無專家建議股民趁低入貨,倒是有些人看恒指會跌落18000 點,以至16000 點,才完成跌市。</div>
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據筆者四十多年的投資經驗,可以負責任地告訴各位,如果將來不幸恒指真跌落18000 點,此等專家一定會看15000 點,亦即不宜入市。輕信此等言論,閣下一定買不到便宜貨。</div>
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到跌市真已見底,恒指上升之時,散戶便不甘心「高」追,因為見過更平價,結果錯失黃金機會,閣下可捫心自問,有無此種慘痛經驗?</div>
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總括而言,利用「均值回歸」平買貴賣原則,股民現時可動用部分資金,入市撿平宜貨,要躬身力行才有所得。</div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-1907529576811062742020-02-18T13:39:00.000+08:002020-02-21T14:31:30.995+08:00<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">周全浩 I 張公道《你要知道理財投資的88件事》新書分享會</span></span></h1>
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: small;"></span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">日期:2020年3月15日(週日)<br />時間:5-7 pm<br />地點:尖沙咀美麗華商場地庫 商務印書館<br />主辦單位:亮光文化出版社<br />費用全免</span></span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: small;">報名網址:<span style="color: #2969b0;"><a href="http://www.cp1897.com.hk/activity.php?id=3608" target="_blank"><u>http://www.cp1897.com.hk/activity.php?id=3608 </u></a></span></span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">簡介:</span></span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">每個人手持現金的多寡、日常的入息及開支和理財的目標等都不同;個性亦各異,要制訂一套合適的投資策略,殊為困難。如何在股票市場獲取每年10%的回報,是一門大學問。</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">以筆名張公道於《信報》撰寫專欄達三十餘年,又以筆名高步昇於《每週財經動向》分析股市二十年,現於《信報月刊》撰寫「張公道投資智慧」專欄的周全浩教授,將於3月15日《你要知道理財投資的88件事》新書分享會中,與讀者分享他多年來分析股市的見解。</span></span></span></h1>
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<br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-81646274532236339312020-02-13T15:56:00.003+08:002020-02-13T15:56:37.154+08:00<br />
筆者上週接受《經濟一週》訪問,有興趣的朋友,可到以下網址瀏覽:<br />
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<br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-25914318529347346802020-02-10T15:13:00.000+08:002020-02-10T15:13:32.962+08:00<br />
周全浩 / 張公道 <br /> 《你要知道理財投資的88件事》<br /> 新書發佈會<br />
日期:3月15日(週日)<span class="text_exposed_show"><br /> 時間:5-7 pm<br /> 地點:尖沙咀美麗華商場地庫商務書店<br /> 報名方法:稍後將於本網公佈</span><br />
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-30007305035144624272020-01-31T14:48:00.001+08:002020-01-31T14:48:18.556+08:00<div class="_5pbx userContent _3576" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-testid="post_message" id="js_g">
個人首本理財著作《你要知道理財投資的88件事》,現已出版,並於以下書局發售,希垂注:<br />
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三聯書店-荃灣店(荃灣東)<br /> 三聯書店-葵芳店(新都會廣場) <br /> 三聯書店-元朗店(元朗西) <br /> 三聯書店-鑽石山店<br /> 三聯書店-淘大店<br /> 三聯書店-藍田店(啟田)<br /> 三聯書店-中環店<br /> 三聯書店-馬鞍山店<br /> 三聯書店-青衣店<br /> 三聯書店-西環店<br /> 三聯書店-觀塘APM店<br /> 三聯書店-灣仔莊士敦道店<br /> 三聯書店-荔枝角店<br /> 三聯書店-將軍澳東港城店<br />
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大眾書局-大埔超級城店<br /> 大眾書局-太子始創中心店<br /> 大眾書局-黃埔店<br /> 大眾書局-黃大仙店<br /> 大眾書局-奧海城店<br /> 大眾書局-九龍灣MegaBox店<br /> 大眾書局-屯門店<br /> 大眾書局-荃灣店<br /> 大眾書局-沙田第一城店<br /> 大眾書局-油塘店<br /> 大眾書局-MoKo 旺角新世紀 Prologue<br /> 大眾書局-元朗Yoho Mall店<br />
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商務印書館-旺角分館<br /> 商務印書館-佐敦店<br /> 商務印書館-美麗華商場店<br /> 商務印書館-將軍澳分館<br /> 商務印書館-北角店<br /> 商務印書館-康怡店<br /> 商務印書館-銅鑼灣店<br /> 商務印書館-沙田新城市廣場(第三期)店<br /> 商務印書館-大埔分館<br /> 商務印書館-上水龍堔路新店<br /> 商務印書館-屯門店<br /> 商務印書館-天水圍店<br /> 商務印書館-九龍灣德福廣場店<br /> 商務印書館-大圍店<br /> 商務印書館-沙田希爾頓中心店<br />
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中華書局-荃灣店<br /> 中華書局-油麻地店<br /> 中華書局-將軍澳新都城店<br />
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天地圖書-灣仔店<br /> 榆林書店-旺角店<br /> 田園書店-旺角店<br /> 漢榮書局-油麻地店<br /> 開益書店-旺角店<br />
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誠品-尖沙咀店<br /> 誠品-銅鑼灣店<br />
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<br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-55997173148221052392019-12-30T16:27:00.001+08:002020-01-31T14:48:56.884+08:00<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span style="color: #274e13;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">文章分享:<u>香港股樓穩健
人棄我取賺大錢</u></span></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">個人的第一本著作──《你要知道理財投資的</span><span lang="EN-US">88</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">件事》(亮光文化出版社)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,正在印刷及釘裝中,預期將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2020</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月出版。下文略述了一些書中的重要意念。</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">香港股樓穩健
人棄我取賺大錢</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></b></div>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">原刊於《信報月刊》,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2019</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月號,「張公道投資智慧」專欄</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">個人的第一本著作</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">──</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">《你要知道理財投資的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">88</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">件事》(亮光文化出版社)快將出版;此書談及理財投資的多方面,所談的東西歷久常新,對讀者有用,現萃取一些精華部分作介紹。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">第一、均值回歸理論。個人用以分析股市的架構為「均值回歸」理論,本刊的讀者不會感到陌生,該理論其中一項基石為移動平均數(線)。長期看,股市於長期移平線上下大幅波動,牛市時指數遠遠拋離長期移平線,熊市時則大幅跌離該線。由於指數在長期移動平均線上下穿梭,因而予人以趨向「長期移動平均值」的感覺。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">最常用的移平線為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線,然後是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">500</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">750</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1000 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線,即一年、兩年、三年、四年及五年線。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">股市的運行反映投資者(主要是大戶)收集及派發的過程,大戶在熊市時收集,牛市時派發。投資者在收集時,通常大市低沉,但各移平線卻暗中轉穩,例如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線之上,後者又升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">250 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線之上,此即為黃金交叉,代表中長期走勢轉而向上。同時,各移平線必須在向上移升,方向才能確認,此時反映指數在最上方,拉着各移平線一齊向上移動,預示着牛市已重臨。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">跌市或熊市時則相反,恒指在最下方,拉着各線向下移動,整體大市以一浪低於一浪的形式向下滑落,形勢糟糕。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">指數拋離</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線之上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">40%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,屬極超買;在下方跌離該線</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">40%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,屬非常超賣。距離越遠,超買或超賣越嚴重。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">不少分析者無法掌握如何捕捉轉角市,不知道有真假黃金及死亡交叉,亦不知道各移平線在向上或向下移動的涵義,囫圇吞棗,測市成績怎會理想?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">恒指</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月初假突破</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">各位看官可能有興趣知道,均值回歸理論對目前港股的後向有何啟示。上月本欄指出,恒指升至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">28500 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,股民宜沽貨,蓋</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">28500</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">29500</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的區域阻力甚大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">7 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日恒指反彈上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">27900 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點,旋即大跌,根本連</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">28500</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">亦無法觸及。移平線方面,今番恒指曾短暫升破所有移平線,包括</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">100</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">250</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">天線,然而無法企穩於其上;各線的排列未回復正常,到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">15 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日已完全逆轉。今番可算是假突破的一個範例,亦為一個走勢陷阱。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">市場有一句諺語,「萬種消息歸於市」,意指一切的「明」「暗」消息,超級大戶的部署,已反映在股價上,事緣世間必有春江鴨,比街外人早點洞悉事態,此輩的行動會早一步在股市反映。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">然則港股是否就此瀉下去?未必,阿里巴巴及其他集資活動搞得如火如荼,有心人會採取行動護盤;港股的估值甚便宜,美股迭創新高,都令到淡友不敢太放肆。況且,繼續在區間炒波幅,有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1500</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2500 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">點的上落,大戶的衍生工具活動已可賺大錢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">第二、本書提供一些切實可行的投資策略,分短炒及長揸兩種。目下散戶多急功近利,喜歡短炒,企圖於一兩周或數月內炒一轉獲利。但散戶的短炒成績往往不佳,最常犯的錯誤為,到股市大崩圍前夕,不少人眼見手上的股份大跌,便不捨得止賺或止蝕,以致牛去熊來之時往往滿手蟹貨。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">高拋低吸玩盈富</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">長揸方面,可按股市的升跌周期作中長線投資,在相對低位吸入後持有一年或數年以上才沽出,務求賺盡一個大浪。應指出,每年都有一個理想的入貨點及理想的沽貨點,即一年的高點和低點。以港股為例,每年的高低點波幅一般有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">25% </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">以上,一些較波動的年份,更可達</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30% </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">或以上。固然世上無人能準確捕捉真正的高點和低點,但若能在一年的相對低位吸入並在相對高位沽出,如與實際波幅相差</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10%</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,每年仍可取得一成以上的回報,十分不俗,此法可用於玩盈富(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">02800</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)。</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;">
<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">第三、探討投資與過去數十年本港政經大勢的關係。多年來本地經濟增長呈上升的趨勢,人均產值亦如是,股市及樓市節節上升。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">在經濟層面,經濟周期的景氣與衰退,直接影響股市的升跌,經濟興旺帶起股市,衰退甚至蕭條之時則股市大瀉。例如,本港先後經歷了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1967</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的「六七」暴動,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1973</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的股災,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1980</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年代初的「九七危機」,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1989 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的六四事件,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1997 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的亞洲金融風暴,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2003 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年「沙士」,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2008 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的金融海嘯,以及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2015 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">年的大時代。上述風波曾一度觸發本地的股、樓市大跌,但每次經一輪下沉後,又會反覆回升,彰顯出均值回歸的特性。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">在政治層面,上述的政治事件發生時,坊間充斥着許多唱淡香港前景的傳聞,人心惶惶,先後掀起數次移民潮,觸發本地樓價大跌一時。一些有遠見及膽識的企業家,如現時的四大地產家族,卻敢於此等時刻紛紛買入樓房及土地,尤其新界的土地,成為日後的巨富。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">在股海翻滾數十年,悟出了一些投資智慧:投資講求前瞻性,需透徹了解宏觀大勢,宜看大資金在做什麼,不要只聽專家或傳媒在說什麼;買賣任何資產時,宜恪守高賣低買的原則,敢於亂世中人棄我取,方能賺大錢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(網站:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">www.facebook.com/larrychchow
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<![endif]--><br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-28806651902261864402019-12-18T14:06:00.002+08:002019-12-18T14:08:39.588+08:00<u><b><span style="color: #274e13;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje21EV8RHgv8DlX6IB8kRiUO9pvqvurafAY0mLKQ3Is7D8LbN1gbWgrX7kUKht2UDtHdIaVNThtdH8JwxH4fg_MeRxdiXhCRpKsgmHZnHmZ2x2tfdD58Ggtyu8pF2h-VDsxUHKxhCgoU4/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"> </a>特別即市短評:縱然整固</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> </span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其後會再升</span></b></u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2019</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">12</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">18</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,下午</span><span lang="EN-US">1 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">pm</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">發放,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"><a href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/">www.stocks-energy.com</a></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">港股升至重要阻力位,今早恒指最高曾見</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">27970</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點。考慮到近日成交龐大,以及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">A</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股的表現</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(A</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股明顯轉強,程度尤勝恒指</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,恒指縱然向下整固,幅度不會大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">尤其重要的是,整固完後會再升,續創新高。投資者應知道,如何自處。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">圖一:恒生指數六個月走勢</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">圖</span><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">註:</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">月</span><span lang="EN-US">6 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">日的研討會,現正接受報名,詳情請</span><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #2c82c9;"><a href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?attachment_id=16928&download=1" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";"><span lang="EN-US">按此</span></span></a></span></u><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">。</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7ndK4D5vXGzCVFizd491ewQU1BXTTUyHPR2d3u_mTsBdw09fk3VyuFJkPpPb6H5xZreQVwQw49hd5T21qCHNf9S4tYppGStBZGxnZWBUaJghpIpJXGGdpCGcruQPtzsHQKdRkg_etaBM/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1132" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7ndK4D5vXGzCVFizd491ewQU1BXTTUyHPR2d3u_mTsBdw09fk3VyuFJkPpPb6H5xZreQVwQw49hd5T21qCHNf9S4tYppGStBZGxnZWBUaJghpIpJXGGdpCGcruQPtzsHQKdRkg_etaBM/s640/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" width="451" /></a></div>
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<br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-60416222675152900072019-12-04T15:05:00.001+08:002019-12-04T15:06:52.277+08:00<u><b><span style="color: #274e13;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje21EV8RHgv8DlX6IB8kRiUO9pvqvurafAY0mLKQ3Is7D8LbN1gbWgrX7kUKht2UDtHdIaVNThtdH8JwxH4fg_MeRxdiXhCRpKsgmHZnHmZ2x2tfdD58Ggtyu8pF2h-VDsxUHKxhCgoU4/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"> </a>特別即市短評:將有強力反彈</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></b></u>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2019</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">12</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">4</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">週三</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">)</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,下午</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">12</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">時半發放</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">這兩天大市跌得太急速,今早恒指曾跌落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">25995</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,與昨天的日中低點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">26063</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">基本上處於同一個水平,可見日內將有反彈,恒指彈升回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">26780</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之上,屬意料中事。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">貨輕者可酌量吸入強勢股作短炒。玩指數者應知道怎樣做。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-no-proof: yes;">最新活動:2020年1月6 日「以年綫圖分析2020年股市大勢」研討會</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigPZFCyRvqM2-G9ejJA4aDOVrLIwSJnCBlbIrbKJRsvFYQ21ygfR8kmtRrXLXAjisnGSI4rEU6XOQ7JsMmYHGYb_KuYhQ8Dgs9S0vILw_tEuChAAVW8IE5WUGQDUM1StexKfG1o2amq7c/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1132" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigPZFCyRvqM2-G9ejJA4aDOVrLIwSJnCBlbIrbKJRsvFYQ21ygfR8kmtRrXLXAjisnGSI4rEU6XOQ7JsMmYHGYb_KuYhQ8Dgs9S0vILw_tEuChAAVW8IE5WUGQDUM1StexKfG1o2amq7c/s640/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" width="452" /></a></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-45728358329563485332019-11-26T15:40:00.001+08:002019-12-04T15:05:37.733+08:00<u><b><span style="color: #274e13;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje21EV8RHgv8DlX6IB8kRiUO9pvqvurafAY0mLKQ3Is7D8LbN1gbWgrX7kUKht2UDtHdIaVNThtdH8JwxH4fg_MeRxdiXhCRpKsgmHZnHmZ2x2tfdD58Ggtyu8pF2h-VDsxUHKxhCgoU4/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"> </a>以年綫圖分析金價</span></b></u>
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<span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">現在不少人炒賣黃金。個人最近以年綫圖分析金價,黃金亦有均值回歸的特性。金價於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2011</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1921</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元創下歷史新高。今番升浪乃始於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1046</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元,其後反覆上升,暫時最高升至今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1557</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元。其時不少專家認為,後市可上望</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1600</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">1700</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元。但金價升至</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">550</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元附近,碰上歷史高位的底部,亦即金價牛市頂部區域的底部,此處遇上強大阻力,自不待言。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">後市將如何走向?從年綫圖看,向下第一個支持位為</span><span lang="EN-US">1430</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元,若然跌穿,下一級支持為</span><span lang="EN-US">1390</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">1310</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元的區域,此區將有強大支持。總括而言,金價於</span><span lang="EN-US">1430</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">1310</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元間可考慮吸入;較進取者可考慮於</span><span lang="EN-US">1430</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元附近吸入,保守者則宜待跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">1390</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">1310</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元的水平才買</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">註:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">2020</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">1</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">6 </span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">日的「以年綫圖分析</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">2020</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif";">年股市大勢」研討會,現已接受報名,詳情請閱:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></span></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-89524444510215028962019-11-21T19:30:00.000+08:002019-11-22T14:35:01.459+08:00<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje21EV8RHgv8DlX6IB8kRiUO9pvqvurafAY0mLKQ3Is7D8LbN1gbWgrX7kUKht2UDtHdIaVNThtdH8JwxH4fg_MeRxdiXhCRpKsgmHZnHmZ2x2tfdD58Ggtyu8pF2h-VDsxUHKxhCgoU4/s1600/6+Jan+2020+seminar+poster-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"> </a>今天的收市短評只有一句:勿胡亂沽空。<br />
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順帶一提,明年1月6日的投資講座細節已定,有興趣的朋友,可到以下網址下載報名表格:<a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F2QzEWm1%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR2YDcQ2mDT9x-QnWob379qNwX0HOZ28oFYDi_TMIOaGfoKzgkIpjGmo0e0&h=AT2sCTYXXXIg6yWo0Hty8KL_0GijGxEiw0RTKOllYosZHsp1SoyG8cXP_7hDwzJbat4ULy2DWeTPN4GZqxcQDAtlGno9x83Gj_Rz94p7rrm5n31jnYx-5KrutdTgFqnTBh4e2Q" href="https://bit.ly/2QzEWm1?fbclid=IwAR2YDcQ2mDT9x-QnWob379qNwX0HOZ28oFYDi_TMIOaGfoKzgkIpjGmo0e0" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/2QzEWm1</a> 。謝謝。<br />
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-7720003341904259382019-11-18T17:35:00.000+08:002019-11-18T17:40:12.276+08:00最新活動公告<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDhbk1b7exx_byxA54_r4eLKF7HvDOGD36_Lg4ovAGcoHg8-o18KR2c4tVkV4rrE4BMuHtebBDcYHzXgoQCiPP1dvv7NrTJBozQR5e4lOSSwtaXRppeo3CqreM6UEHES6o6Sa9jGTKZGk/s1600/69762511_700019427187131_1083236841345253376_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="960" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDhbk1b7exx_byxA54_r4eLKF7HvDOGD36_Lg4ovAGcoHg8-o18KR2c4tVkV4rrE4BMuHtebBDcYHzXgoQCiPP1dvv7NrTJBozQR5e4lOSSwtaXRppeo3CqreM6UEHES6o6Sa9jGTKZGk/s400/69762511_700019427187131_1083236841345253376_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-75344993249056542092019-11-06T12:30:00.000+08:002019-11-18T17:39:37.563+08:00<span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #274e13;"><u><b>買股收息 </b></u></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最近不少股評人教人買大陸股收息。買股收息,只宜買過去十年派息穩定的股份,至少年年照派舊息,或派息只加不減,才值得考慮吸入。但目下很多大陸股派息浮動,一些年份增加,一些年份減少,人們怎能靠它食息過活?以內銀股為例,中國銀行(3988),雖於2009至2013年間年年增派息,但2013年後派息變得浮動,未能只加不減[圖一];建行(939)亦有類似的派息趨勢。相反,本地一些大藍籌的派息相當穩定,例如恒生銀行(011)多年來派息只加不減,整體上年年上升[圖二]。滙豐銀行(005)也如是。</span></div>
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</figure>周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-4878209958570859792019-10-18T13:30:00.000+08:002019-11-18T17:47:39.841+08:00<span style="color: #274e13;"><br /></span>
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<span style="color: #274e13;"><span style="font-size: large;"> <u><b>特別收市短評:向26850至27125進發</b></u></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以下兩篇為最近兩週本網所發放的《收市短評》,可見本欄的預測恒指走勢十分貼市。若要窺全豹,宜訂閱週一的核心文章,尤其玩衍生工具(如期指、期權及#2800、#7500)者可能會感興趣。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="_4yxp">訂閱週一核心文章詳情:</span><a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stocks-energy.com%2F%3Fpage_id%3D13652%26fbclid%3DIwAR0DODpz0QS2b15gH-T7SpC069Y59qObH3RzpYQOsQKa_ImA1QKDdzlXEdA&h=AT3oljTwvHplJbDk3F1C_Eu6ERMnmlRpCjfHglqgm9Pp793CBS9LIPpj5P3oY_AZDOLEPrgv-ezdB8l35tedxwcunYpxyxAi1_fDcfcqTKfVZZrexC2EG-XEbsksp0s4aKTjKw" href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13652&fbclid=IwAR0DODpz0QS2b15gH-T7SpC069Y59qObH3RzpYQOsQKa_ImA1QKDdzlXEdA" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="_4yxp">http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13652</span></a></span></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-29679331893451331482019-09-26T12:30:00.000+08:002019-11-18T17:43:38.095+08:00<div class="_2yud clearfix">
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<span style="color: #274e13;"><u><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span>油價上升面面觀</span></span></b></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">原刊於2019年9月21日,《信報》評論版</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">日前沙地阿拉伯有產油設施遇襲,其中包括油田及煉油廠等,導致沙國原油產量大減一半,每日只能生產570萬桶原油,等於世界產量減少5%。該國預期需要數個月才能修復(最近說短期內可修復)。事件對油價有何影響?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從走勢看,過去一年的油價十分波動,例如美國油價,由去年10月的每桶76.9美元,大跌至去年底的42.36美元,然後大升至今年4月的66.6美元,今年6月又跌至50.6美元,至近日因沙地產油設施受襲,油價又再升回62美元。可見過去一年油價於42至77美元之間扯上扯落,呈現均值回歸的特性,升完又跌,跌完又升,在長期移動平均綫上下波動。77美元處於徘徊區上方,有重大阻力,自不待言。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">目下不少論者認為,是次事件將觸發新一輪石油危機,預期油價將飆升至100美元以上。事實果真如此?以前若然發生上述同類事件,令世界石油供應驟減的話,很多時都會觸發油價暴升。但今天的情形比較複雜,原因如下:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">一,目前世界並無石油短缺,反而鑑於世界石油市場供過於求,早些時石油輸出國組織(OPEC)開會討論限產,打算延長減產協議至明年3月,每日減產120萬桶,以穩定油價。可見世界石油供應充裕。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">二,一些大石油消費國擁有相當規模的戰略石油儲備,以應對短期的石油供應衝擊,例如,經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)國家擁有相當於125天進口量的石油儲備,日本有230天,中國則有90天。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">三,沙國石油供應下跌,買家可考慮轉從其他國家進口石油。例如伊朗,石油為該國的主要收入來源,但受西方國家制裁多年,近日更被禁石油出口。中國向來是伊朗石油的最大買家。受制裁後,伊朗出口多少石油,無人知道,但肯定伊國樂意增大石油出口來賺錢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">四、早年有傳聞指,西方國家存心推低油價,懲罰俄羅斯,例如在上世紀八十年代已有此說,蓋石油及天然氣出口為其重要經濟支柱,油價大瀉將打擊當地經濟。如今油價上升,天然氣價亦會上升,(因兩者有唇齒相依的關係,變動方向通常一致,雖幅度不同及有時間差),使俄國的外匯收入大增,強人普京現在應十分開心。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">五,石油價格上漲,意味著中國要買貴一點的石油,但應可負擔得來,蓋它有世上最龐大的外匯儲備做後盾。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">六,美國總統特朗普日前宣稱,將準備動用戰略石油儲備,以保證市場供應充足。此舉無疑可紓緩市場的緊張情緒,有助壓抑油價。例如,1990年爆發波斯灣戰爭,油價由每桶14美元急升至42美元,後來時任美國總統小布殊動用戰略石油儲備,向市場釋放約1721萬桶石油,油價不久後回落至18美元。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">七,預期世界石油需求增長將放緩,蓋受中美貿易戰拖累,世界經濟增長失速,有些人甚至憂慮將出現全球經濟衰退,例如,最近美債孳息曲綫倒掛,即短期債息率高於長期債息率,為11年來首次出現,論者指出,歷史上每次出現此情況,世界都會於一兩年內陷入衰退。經濟不景氣,石油需求將停滯不前,油價怎能大升?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">凡此種種,反映目前市場不具備油價長期大升的條件。除非情況惡化,例如中東地區還有其他動亂事件發生,否則油價能升越去年高位77美元的機會不大,即使升穿,上升的空間有限,為時亦不會長,可見無需擔心油價大幅攀升,以致拖累經濟陷入衰退。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">加入周全浩/張公道讀者會詳情: <a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stocks-energy.com%2F%3Fpage_id%3D13338%26fbclid%3DIwAR1Oazm0fpeRY7rIqYNuuHYlHgQCNi_g9CoVLggm3dfS0_RT6F-kwaQgtuA&h=AT36E03fBX0L4dYkHaRLsB5YVscHQ49thjgATC9ZOW9flXtUXpNCpOpAvDrh78ss4LsyHA_HTKbG6FmBFJH8YdBmgQP1_HG7hqfHvyD6fLbdOjkL0uh5z8_uDbWSuXJUUZkPRA" href="http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338&fbclid=IwAR1Oazm0fpeRY7rIqYNuuHYlHgQCNi_g9CoVLggm3dfS0_RT6F-kwaQgtuA" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338</a></span></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-89894823693138059722019-09-23T12:00:00.000+08:002019-11-22T14:35:57.772+08:00<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b><span style="color: #274e13;">文章分享:2019 年版「六四」港股或下試22000</span></b></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">反修例風波目前仍未平息,仍然影響著港股。本文分析了政治事件對港股的影響,至今仍然有效。而且本文從長期走勢以年綫圖分析港股後市,從宏觀看出另一個有效視角,具參考價值。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">加入周全浩/張公道讀者會詳情:<a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fw.stocks-energy.com%2F%3Fpage_id%3D13338%26fbclid%3DIwAR0Rez268kAN2U0YBUWswuxnrTgeTWv2aD5hkjgY_zrf31PRfmtsnNsZENs&h=AT0-44a83qDgB0hGdZVn8_sUDOMs7Orn3M9bb7MHibQ3eSxFHydXXd5nz8O9bfVUW4I6iHt4hVZr2MhcYndXxpQOJRQBSSA2FsV0BSqc6hiQgtnoRvk4kMxLEHcSsmgGgVN0mg" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.stocks-energy.com/?page_id=13338</a></span></div>
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<pre class="_19ik" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="_2cuy _19ii _2vxa"> * * * * * * * *</span></span></pre>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="_4yxo">2019 年版「六四」港股或下試22000</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">原刊於《信報月刊》,2019年9月號,「張公道投資智慧」專欄</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">今番本港的「反修訂逃犯條例」風波,與三十年前的六四事件相似;事件在醞釀期間或爆發前夕,股市都有一段時間上升,到事件真正爆發之時,才大跌下去。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從宏觀大勢看,港股的恒指由去年10 月30 日的24585 點(收市指數.下同),反彈上今年4 月19 日的30157 點,大升5572 點,升幅為23.4%。其後向下調整,暫時最低跌至今年8 月13 日的25281 點,基本上把前時的升幅全部抹掉〔圖一〕。促成大跌市的原因包括:一、中美貿易談判不明朗,例如8 月1 日特朗普突然宣布向中國餘下3000億美元的進口貨加徵10% 關稅,8 月5 日美國財政部宣布,把中國列為滙率操縱國;二、香港「反修例」抗爭行動愈演愈烈,不知如何收科。事實上本港的「反修例」風波,為中美鬥爭的餘波,乃是兩國全面開戰的其中一條戰線,目前差不多進入決戰階段。</span></div>
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<img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="186" id="u_gz_2" src="https://scontent.fhkg4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/70094102_655010535021354_3864498808574443520_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_oc=AQkaytoO2Pgee9eEIToKm22H2vNiI1hnI0hE6R4Y7hgS2k6Mb-Dp2D6wylyKjBVwT8I&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg4-2.fna&oh=98e0b8b7e562fb0d74d8c40b76511ca0&oe=5E56B6F2" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">關於「反修例」風波,筆者整理了若干脈絡,值得一談。是次風波乃由今年3 月31日開始,數以萬計市民聚集遊行,起初尚無暴力事件發生,但至6 月12 日的示威,卻演變成「暴動」,多名市民及警察受傷。6 月15 日,特首林鄭月娥宣布「暫緩」修例,但部分市民仍感不滿,於是在多區發起示威,期間多次發生激烈的警民衝突,抗爭行動遍地開花。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">值得注意的是,是次風波在醞釀期間,大市仍在升,恒指由2019年6月4日的26761點,上升至2019年7月4日的29007點,大升2246點,升幅為8.4%。7 月大部分時間,恒指則在28000 至28800點之間相對高位的水平跳上跳落。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">7月下旬起,抗爭行動進一步升級,大市開始跌破重要支持位。7 月21 日,一班白衣人在元朗襲擊示威者,社會的撕裂情況,人人關注。8 月5 日市民舉行「三罷」(罷工、罷課、罷市)行動,企圖癱瘓香港。恒指由7 月24 日的日中高點28764 點,急速跌落8月6日的日中低點25397 點,9 個交易日內大跌3400 點,跌幅為11.8%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">9個交易日大跌3400點</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">繼而8 月12 日市民發起佔領機場行動,機管局於下午3 時許宣布當天所有航班取消。8月13日市民再次佔領機場,更有人圍打記者及遊客,港澳辦於翌日公開譴責滋事分子,認為他們與恐怖分子無異,發言人之殺氣騰騰及態度之強硬,人人可見,港股於8 月15 日最低曾跌落24899點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如今港股跌至25000點的邊緣,後市將何去何從?本欄上月文章已提過,觀乎雙方紮硬馬的態勢(尤其在香港),如反對派強硬到底,例如務必癱瘓香港,或作不合理的要求,如要求某位特首下台,中央政府必會強硬回應,稍後恒指跌穿去年10 月30日的24540點,恐不可避免。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從年線圖看,今年的港股迄今形成先低後高,低點為1 月的25064 點,高點為4 月的30157 點。但目前已可肯定30157點為今年的高點,這意味着今年餘下的時間會有更低的指數出現,低點將跌穿1月的25064點,把大市扭轉成先高後低,屆時大市大有機會下試22000 點或以下的水平。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政治事件對股市的影響,一向難測。因事件醞釀時股市或升,令人以為大市無事,爆發時卻急跌。正因如此,自「反修例」風波掀起以來,不少分析員認為,恒指不會顯著挫落,可守穩28000點之上。他們錯判了形勢。市場裏有聰明腦袋,眼光獨到,他們可能在較早的時間,如6 月9 日百萬人上街之時,已洞悉到今番風波不易平息,並先行在高位建立淡倉,目前已可獲厚利。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">目前的風波不知如何及何時平息,即使平息後,恐怕後遺症亦甚多。一方面中央政府可能收緊對港的政策,在「一國兩制」的框架下,實行對港的管治權,而非像以前一樣,放手讓港人管治,釀成今日的局面,這最少是其中一派的看法。果如此,對本港經濟的影響,料不會太劇烈,蓋中央政府欲保持本港的繁榮,繼續對國家作出頁獻,然而行業及大財團之間,勢必有若干重新執位的行動。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">反而在政治方面,麻煩得多。現時有些港人在搞移民,筆者就有一位四十多歲的遠房親戚在申請往台灣,會有一輪移民潮。然而料不會對經濟及樓價造成顯著的衝擊,蓋大陸的移民及資金,仍會源源不絕流入本港。可以預見,本地社會將會有新一輪的變動。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">另一方面,政治理念的差異拉闊,問題可以極嚴重。一部分市民要求增加政制內民主的成分,但經過今番的衝擊,中央政府更不放心,不敢放手,反而會收得更緊。如何化解困局,實乃當務之急。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">可見下半年的港股恐要面對風雲變幻的政局,烏雲密布,隨時會有驚嚇場面出現,股民宜持盈保泰。雖然以P/E 等客觀因素衡量,港股已跌至具吸引力的水平,然而熊市當道,在反覆盤旋下跌的市況下,此時絕非趁低吸入作中線或長線持有的適合時機。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">大市反彈應減磅</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果閣下自問是短炒高手,可動用少量資金作超短線(數天至兩三周)炒賣,有10%至20%利潤,立刻回吐。若然前三周大市崩圍之時走避不及,現時手上持貨較重者,應趁大市反彈之時,立刻減磅,縱然要虧蝕,亦應增持現金,到下一個跌浪出現之時,閣下便會知道並無沽錯。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">港股歷次大跌市降臨之時,很多人知道要跳車逃生,但有多少人真正做到?與鱷共舞至最後一分鐘極危險,今年8 月又得到一次印證。〔圖二〕</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="302" id="u_gz_3" src="https://scontent.fhkg4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/70722406_655010258354715_8613296765958881280_o.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_oc=AQkUAqN5X4-SY5LOkuweXxykQHIz8a1--EZR9ilevrND1cPmmNVrE_wDzXp85tvpElY&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg4-1.fna&oh=1553fb8aebee5ede4ed3b62df91e4373&oe=5E41E932" width="640" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">( 於2019年8月16日脫稿)</span></div>
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周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-49163937857182319092019-09-13T12:58:00.001+08:002019-09-13T12:59:29.131+08:00<div class="m-4208753861769700696p1CxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; tab-stops: 91.45pt 113.05pt center 207.65pt;">
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">目前港股正處政治市,如風波持續下去,將拖累本地經濟及股市。<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">宜注意,若然股市下跌,港人的強</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">/</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">公積金的帳面值亦會下跌,屆時將全民受害。各位可查看一下過去兩年的積金月結單,如比對去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月股市暢旺與今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月股市大跌時,其賬面結餘跌了多少,便清楚。<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">除非閣下打算二、三十年後才退休,可考慮繼續持有高風險基金,不作任何調動。否則,宜待股市反彈之時,減持高風險基金,轉投入低風險基金。高風險基金通常股票成分較重,低風險基金則較輕。到股市真個大散時,則作反向操作,沽出低風險基金,轉投入高風險基金。此乃踏浪而行的做法,為「均值回歸」測市法的精髓。<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"> 政治風暴拖跌經濟全民受害</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">原刊於</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">2019</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">年</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">12</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">日,《文匯報》評論版</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">最近很多網站傳言指,大戶利用消息在股市炒賣賺錢,例如,傳聞某些方面利用中美貿易談判的消息衝擊股市,並早一步做淡沽空來賺大錢。此中關於西方勢力企圖做市的傳聞較可信,例如美國總統特朗普經常在推特(</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">Twitter</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">)說三道四,他在推特一開口,往往可立刻影響美國及中港等地的股市。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">股票市場最為敏感及上落快速,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">其</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">成交龐大</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,而</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">且容易買賣。例如,大戶可早一步借貨沽空或在衍生工具市場沽空指數,到消息正式公佈之時平倉,以獲厚利。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">近月的港股亦有類似的情況。恒生指數由</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">7</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">24</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">日的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">28764</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">點跌落</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">8</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">15</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">日的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">24899</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">點,衹三週時間,大跌了</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">3856</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">點,跌幅為</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">13.4%</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。市內有大量沽空活動,港交所的資料可供參考,如</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">8</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">月份港股的日均沽空率為</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">16.6%</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">市內有無天馬行空式的沽空活動,外人無從得知。但應指出,金管局一直有注視市內的沽空活動,並非完全不理。此等活動可牽一髪動全身,對股市的影響甚大。再者,股市大瀉可能涉及大量資金的出入,屆時將影響到港元的穩定性,故局方有密切留意有無大資金在市場出入。例如在星加坡交易所掛牌的富時</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">中國</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">A50</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">指數期貨,九月份合約未平倉數目達</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">795,000</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">手,其升跌對</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">A</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">股的影響非同小可,而後者與港股有唇齒相依的關係。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">與此相關的是,現時很多國際大行及評論員唱淡人民幣。</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">人民幣</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">兌</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">美元</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">匯率於</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">9</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">2</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">日最低曾見</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">7.1836</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">,創下十一年半新低。有大行預期,明年人民幣可能跌至</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">7.3</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">惟此等言論不宜輕信,蓋人民幣有中國經濟做後盾,長遠而言不可能衹跌不升,有三個因素:一、中國為世界第二大經濟體,並積存了全球最大的外匯儲備,達</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">3</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">萬</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">1</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">千億美元。二、中國的國內生產總值</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">(GDP)</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">平均增長率,近年維持於</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">6.6%</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">以上,遠高於歐洲、美國及日本等地區,中國經濟實力雄厚,對人民幣會有支持。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">三、中央政府近年要人民幣「走出去」,乃中國的戰略性策略,希望其他國家接受人民幣作為外匯儲備,因此,人民幣會與其他貨幣一樣,如美元、歐元、英磅及日元等,呈現均值回歸的特性,即升完會跌,跌完又升,且具週期性,在長期移動平均</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">價</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">上下波動。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">記憶所及,年前若然</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">100</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">港元能換到</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">82</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">元人民幣已屬划算,現在</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">100</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">港元可換到</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">91</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">元人民幣,人民幣已有相當幅度的調整,若說此後仍會繼續大跌,實乃不著邊際。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">值得注意的是,人民幣「走出去」,可能威脅到美元的主導地位,現時傳媒及大行大力唱淡是否別有用心,值得思量。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">觀回香港,本地股市近幾月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">受反修例風波影響</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,甚為波動,恒指由</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">7</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">4</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">日的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">29007</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">點急跌至</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">8</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">15</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">日的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">24899</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">點,然後反彈上</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">月</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">11</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">日的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">27159</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">點。後市將何去何從?</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"></span></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">目前社會上</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">一些人被誤導,做出種種暴力行為,如</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">蒙著面</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">四處大肆破壞、縱火,堵塞交通,佔領機場不讓遊客上機,圍打警察及遊客等。若然</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">長此</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">下去,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">將</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">帶來嚴重的經濟後果。<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">首先,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">股市必受拖累,大市無法真正回升,即使有反彈,彈後亦會再跌,蓋目下不少公司的盈利將倒退,其中以旅遊、酒店及運輸業首當其衝</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">:</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">1) </span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">由於</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">訪港旅客</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">數目</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">大減</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,如上月較去年同期跌了四成,使</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">酒店入住</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">率</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">大跌</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,零售業的生意也大減。</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">2</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">) </span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">由於多區道路被堵塞,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">的士</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">司機及運輸公司的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">生意</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">亦會受累</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。股市有一條鐵律:「股價跟盈利走」,若然</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">一眾</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">公司的盈利皆倒退,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">又</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">怎能帶起</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">港</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">股</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">呢</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">?</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".pingfang hk" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">其次,在</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">股市</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">及經濟不景氣的情況下</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">,市民的消費意欲</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">會</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">減弱,因人人感到自己身家輕了不少。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sf ui text" , "serif";"></span></div>
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<span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">復次,如股市下跌,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">港人的公積金及強積金</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">的</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">賬面值</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">亦會</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">下跌</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,屆時將</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">全民受害,不衹中上層人士,</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">就</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">連酒樓阿姐、巴士阿叔或地盤工友等基層市民</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">的荷包</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">亦</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">會「縮水」</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。例如,近日公佈截至今年</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">8</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">月底的強積金回報,整體回報平均跌</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">2.59%</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">,人均蝕</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">5,500</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">元,其中以港股基金跌幅最大,下跌</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">5%</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">。若然今年底恒指跌至</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s2"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: ".sfuitext" , "serif";">22000</span></span><span class="m-4208753861769700696s1"><span style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;">點以下的水平,對上述基金的回報有何影響?</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #454545; font-family: "新細明體" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體;"></span></div>
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<![endif]--><br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1931974519713291820.post-79265842235891964352019-09-02T19:28:00.003+08:002019-09-02T19:29:32.312+08:00<br />
<span style="color: #274e13;"><b>誰人知道水源真正何來?</b></span><br />
<br />
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<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
據報載,7月19日至8月29日31個交易日內,北水無間斷地淨流入700億元,狂掃重磅股,如建行(939)、騰訊(700)及平保(2318)等,但此期間,恒指却由7月的高點28809點急跌至8月的低點24899點,大跌3910點。意味著有大勢力在市場大力沽貨之時,北水却狂接貨,那麼此等北水豈非十分愚蠢,目前已「high曬嘢」?</div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
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<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
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<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
上述數據雖是港交所的數字,但有誰能肯定「北水」真正來自何方?<br />
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<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
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<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
<img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="175" id="u_1d_0" src="https://scontent.fhkg4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/69838303_641059569749784_882204566274179072_n.png?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQmEXd_faBpqiTudwlXLicz4OQgrpju6PmLrnARRoxkNTYr37Heejq8OU45X37mU2hY&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg4-2.fna&oh=172b6c6901ede0915d344b7e44c9e04c&oe=5DFE4383" width="400" /></div>
<br />周全浩 (Larry Chow)http://www.blogger.com/profile/12917844563056751685noreply@blogger.com